An indirect method for assessing the epidemiological effectiveness of Russian-made influenza

• Mikhail V. Shipilov
• Andrey A. Uskov

Abstract

The analysis of the epidemiological effectiveness of different flu vaccines is an important issue for healthcare practice.

The purpose of the study is a comparative assessment of the epidemiological effectiveness of Russian flu vaccines using a mathematical model.

Material and methods. The work uses Rospotrebnadzor reports on the annual incidence of influenza in the Russian Federation for the period 2015–2019 and data on the use of various influenza vaccines as part of the National Preventive Vaccination Calendar. Mathematical statistical methods (nonlinear regression analysis) were used to evaluate the epidemiological effectiveness of various types of vaccines.

Results and discussion. An indirect method for assessing the epidemiological effectiveness of vaccines for the prevention of influenza has been developed. It has been shown that the epidemiological effectiveness of vaccination with Russian-made split vaccines (Ultrix, Ultrix Quadri and Fly-M) containing 15 μg of each antigen is 38% higher than vaccination with Russian-made subunit vaccines with an adjuvant (Grippol, Grippol Plus, Sovigripp) containing 5 μg of each influenza A strain.

Conclusion. The use of an indirect method for assessing the epidemiological effectiveness of flu vaccines can be useful in optimizing the flu vaccination campaign.

Keywords: influenza; vaccination; epidemiological effectiveness

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